The Intelligence Cycle
For anyone who has even skirted round the edges of the world of intelligence, or done more than a cursory google search, you’ll have likely come across the intelligence cycle. It’s a model used by intelligence organisations around the world, but it is equally applicable to the private sector. It isn’t complicated or surprising, and it provides a clear and easy-to-follow guide for producing actionable intelligence products. In intelligence, it is as basic as it comes, but it is always worth reiterating.
Requirements - here you identify what the questions are that you’re trying to solve. Working with your customers, you zero in on the information they need to be able to take the actions they require. You will have an overarching strategic requirement (e.g. understanding the threat environment in a specific city because the customer wants to send travellers there) and then multiple operational requirements to support this (e.g. what are the main threat actors in the city, where do they operate, do they pose a threat to visitors, what are the crime levels in the city, what types of crimes do visitors experience, is it violent etc etc). You should also ask what format the customer wants the product in, and how it should be disseminated. This is the most important part of the cycle as if you don’t get this right, it can disrupt everything that comes afterwards.
Collection - once you’ve got your requirements, you then need to set about gathering intelligence to address them. You’ll identify what sources you have (e.g. crime data from government websites, relationships with local law enforcement), make an assessment about their reliability and any biases they may have, then start gathering information from them.
Analysis - now you’ve got a load of great information, you need to start making sense of it in relation to your requirements. Look at patterns and trends in your data (e.g. crime levels have been rising significantly in certain areas of the city over the last two years), overlay that with local context about how to interpret it (e.g. recent flare ups in gang conflict and efforts to claim territory are driving the increase in violent crime), come up with a conclusion about what it all means in relation to the requirements (e.g. violent crime is primarily targeted at other gang members, however passers by risk being accidental victims, and this threat is especially acute in X and Y district).
Dissemination - you need to get your great analysis to the right people, in the right format. In this stage you’ll produce your finished intelligence product, and deliver it to the customer. This could range from a lengthy report, to a short email, to a presentation or a phone call. The preferred format would have been agreed in the requirements setting phase.
Feedback - once your customer has received the product, they might have questions or need clarification, in which case, you start the cycle again. Even if they don’t independently offer questions, you should seek out feedback around whether the product met their needs, and whether there is anything else outstanding.